Letters from Tomis

Lecture

Lecture based on an article in The Defense of Marxism in 2006.

https://marxist.com/china-long-march-capitalism131006.htm

I. Lecture Overview:

This lecture examines the third part of the International Marxist Tendency’s analysis of China’s transformation from a bureaucratically planned socialist economy to a capitalist society. It frames China’s development as a reactionary process led by a Stalinist-bureaucratic caste transitioning into a bourgeois ruling class, while paradoxically creating the largest proletariat in human history. We will explore the nature of China’s imperialist expansion, the social costs of capitalist growth, the internal contradictions of the Chinese Communist Party, and the revolutionary implications for the future.

II. Lecture Outline:

1. From Planned Economy to Capitalist Giant

• China’s economic transformation began with the dismantling of state planning and the embrace of market reforms post-1978.

• By 2006, China became the fourth largest global economic power and third in industrial output.

• Though reactionary in Marxist terms, this transition produced a historically unprecedented industrial proletariat—potentially a revolutionary class force.

2. China’s Emergence as a Global Imperialist Actor

• China now imports raw materials and exports capital and finished goods, a classical trait of imperialism.

• Penetration into Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia mirrors the behavior of Western imperialist powers.

• Investments in oil (e.g., Venezuela), infrastructure (e.g., Brazilian industry), and UN peacekeeping (e.g., Haiti) show geopolitical ambition.

• The U.S.-China trade conflict is an expression of deepening inter-imperialist rivalry.

3. Urbanization, Proletarianization, and Class Contradictions

• Massive rural-to-urban migration: 20 million per year; 800 million urban dwellers projected by 2025.

• This process is “proletarianizing” peasants, drawing them into wage labor.

• The new working class lives under savage conditions reminiscent of Engels’ 19th-century Manchester: 80% of global mining deaths, high workplace fatalities, suicide as leading cause of death for ages 20–35.

• Disillusionment and militant strikes rising: 900% increase in “collective actions” since 1992.

4. Uneven Development and Social Polarization

• Stark inequalities: top 10% own 45% of city wealth; bottom 10% own 1.4%.

• Massive regional disparities: coastal zones vs. inland; Han Chinese vs. national minorities (Uighurs, Tibetans, etc.).

• The Gini coefficient of 0.45 surpasses the UN’s instability threshold of 0.40.

5. The Communist Party as a Bourgeois Instrument

• The Communist Party remains hegemonic but is increasingly bourgeois in character:

• 30% of capitalists are party members.

• It facilitates the consolidation of capitalism, acting as a political shield for private property and foreign capital.

• Internal divisions:

• Technocratic-capitalist wing: favors aggressive privatization and minimal redistribution.

• Populist-reformist wing: advocates social policies to avoid revolution.

• Similar to the late Soviet Union: potential for crisis-driven factional rupture.

6. Prospects for Crisis and Revolutionary Upheaval

• Capital-intensive growth is unsustainable:

• Investment is 45% of GDP.

• Organic composition of capital rising; return on investment falling (from 16% to 12%).

• Overproduction looms: steel, textiles, coal already showing signs of glut.

• China exports over 50% of GDP—extremely vulnerable to world market fluctuations.

• Crisis will not only be economic but social and political.

7. Revolutionary Potential and Marxist Tasks

• The paradox of capitalist restoration: creation of its own gravedigger class—the proletariat.

• Future revolutionary waves could mirror Russia 1905 or 1917, led by a newly radicalized working class.

• Need for re-engagement with genuine Marxist traditions—not Stalinist or Maoist caricatures:

• Reclaiming the legacy of Chen Duxiu, early CCP leader and later Trotskyist.

• Reviving democratic socialist planning and workers’ control.

III. Summary:

China’s capitalist development, while achieving rapid industrialization and integration into the global market, is riddled with contradictions that Marxists argue are unsustainable. The process has created extreme class inequality, ecological strain, and an enormous, restless working class. The current regime rests on an unstable fusion of Stalinist authoritarianism and capitalist exploitation. The IMT predicts that these tensions will ultimately produce revolutionary upheaval, led by China’s immense proletariat, which could alter the global balance of class forces.

IV. Suggested Readings:

1. International Marxist Tendency. China’s Long March to Capitalism (Part I–III). www.marxist.com

2. Engels, Friedrich. The Condition of the Working Class in England.

3. Trotsky, Leon. The Revolution Betrayed.

4. Hinton, William. Fanshen: A Documentary of Revolution in a Chinese Village.

5. Karl Marx. Capital, Volumes I–III.